The European and GFS Models both forecast 2-4.5 inches of rain. There is a flood watch with the potential for 10+ inches of rain. The Euro forecast wind gusts of 62 mph, and the GFS forecast wind gusts of 53 mph. The Euro forecast landfall of Cristobal in SW Louisiana early Monday. The GFS forecast landfall Sunday night in SE Louisiana.
These models will likely change. Cristobal is still over land and very disorganized. Dry air is moving into the system now, and it is over land. Dry air covers the West Gulf. An Upper high over the East Pacific is causing strong winds aloft over the West Gulf. This is called wind shear. So wind shear and dry air over the West Gulf will not help Cristobal intensify. Water temps are in the low 80s to upper 70s. This is not exceedingly warm water. It's warm enough to sustain a system.
Cristobal looks to move towards Louisiana, so we will have to monitor and get ready. The weather cooperates Friday to make preparations, but in the afternoon some storms will fire up. It also looks like some storms will develop Friday night on the Northshore and South Mississippi.
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from Local Stories
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