NOAA is forecasting an above average chance of an extremely active hurricane season. 19-25 storms are forecast. 7-11 of those become hurricanes. 3-6 become major hurricanes. Dr. Phil Klotzbach has a similar forecast. 24 named storms, 12 become hurricanes and 5 become major hurricanes. These forecast both include the 9 storms of which 2 became hurricanes that already happened this year.
NOAA has never forecast 25 named storms before. Should we reach 24 to 25 storms, we will go into the Greek Alphabet for names. Our list of names only includes 21 names.
The reasoning for an active season is that we have an active West African Monsoon. That means there are a lot of Easterly Waves moving off the Coast of Africa into the warm Tropical Atlantic. The Tropical Atlantic waters are warmer than average, but not as hot as the water was in 2005. The Trade Winds are weak. La Nina looks to develop as the water temperatures in the Tropical East Pacific are cooler than average. That means wind shear will be weak across the Tropical Atlantic, and allow tropical systems to develop.
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from Local Stories
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