With Sally well to our East, we have a North wind. Drier air is moving into the area. Morning lows will drop into the upper 60s to mid 70s. Partly cloudy Thursday with a slight rain chance. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s. A cold front moves our way Friday with an increase in clouds and some rain chances. Highs will be in the mid 80s. Saturday morning you will notice less humid air in place.
Invest 90-L in the SW Gulf has a 70% chance for tropical development, and a depression is forecast by the end of the weekend. There is the potential that it will simply meander in the SW Gulf for a few days. There is strong wind shear over the NW Gulf and dry air now, and that will likely increase. That is not a friendly environment for development. The GFS Model indicates the potential for some energy to break off and move towards our Coast this weekend giving us rain chances especially along the coast and offshore. It also shows a lingering broad area of low pressure. Right now it is not doing much with it.
The European model shows the cold front dropping into the Gulf and stalling. Dry air is over land. A broad low looks to develop on the tail end of the front. It then shows some development possibly into a storm in the West Gulf.
The RPM model seems to show some energy moving towards the Coastal areas and offshore over the weekend just causing some rain.
As we know, these models have been shifting a lot, and have frankly been unreliable.
Here's what I think. I think some energy will move towards the Coast this weekend with some rain along the coast and offshore. I think the front will come through giving us dry air and pleasant conditions for the weekend. The front will stall. Invest 90-L will hang out, and begin to develop along the tail end of the stalled front next week. That is the time period we will have to watch. It is way too far out to say where it will go. This is just something to monitor.
from Local Stories
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